大口・小口（NZドルの先物・10/13時点） 大口投機 売り越し 47,001枚（先週から-17,655）・3年の中での位置 19 小口 売り越し 1,974枚 Details
Net long = Long NZD / Short USD
RBNZ (New Zealand) outlook (Past, Present, Future)
Generated: 2026-10-21 01:52 | AI: gemini-3.5-flash-lite | *AI outlooks are estimated from materials and are not guaranteed
Past
RBNZ thermometer trends (+ hawkish / - dovish)
Policy Temperature (60-day avg) 1.00
政策金利（OCR）と市場の金利（2年スワップ・2年債＝市場の金利の予想）
OCR 2.75%2年スワップ 3.93%2年債 3.79%10年債 4.94%
物価（前年比・四半期） RBNZの目標は1〜3％（真ん中の2％）
Headline CPI 4.10%Core (sectoral factor model) 2.70%Non-tradables (domestic prices) 3.40%
NZD/USD (monthly average). A strong NZD lowers import prices and slightly reduces the need for a hike
NZD/USD 0.58 USD
Employment and wages (quarterly)
Unemployment rate 5.60%Average hourly earnings (YoY) 2.90%
Real wages: below 0 means wage growth lags inflation
Real wages (Average hourly earnings – CPI) -1.20%
Economy (Real GDP YoY): Below 0 is a recession sign
Real GDP (YoY): 2.50%
Previous outlooks
| Date created | When | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 01:52 Thermometer | 3 months later 2.75% | 40% | 60% | 0% |
| 1 years later 3.00% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
Present
Overall policy temperature (based on documents, indicators, and markets)
+0.5 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
Fuel price increases due to the Middle East conflict pushed inflation above the upper limit of the target, signaling the possibility of additional hikes.
RBNZの発言の温度計（直近30日の資料・0件）
— No documents
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
RBNZは中東紛争に起因する燃料価格の上昇によりインフレ率が4.1%へと上昇したことを受け, OCRを2.75%に引き上げた. 委員会では景気の下振れリスクや不均一な回復に対する懸念が示された一方で, インフレを中期的に2%の目標中央値に戻すため, 金融刺激策を段階的に縮小し追加利上げを行う可能性が議論された.
今の政策金利（OCR）：2.75%（2026-09に変更）
Latest Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI year-on-year | 2026 Q2 period | +4.1% (YoY) | +3.1% (YoY) |
| Core prices (sectoral factor model, emphasized by RBNZ) YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +2.7% (YoY) | +2.7% (YoY) |
| Non-tradable prices (domestic prices) YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +3.4% (YoY) | +3.5% (YoY) |
| Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted, %) | 2026 Q2 period | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| Average hourly earnings YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +2.9% (YoY) | +3.2% (YoY) |
| Real GDP YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +2.5% (YoY) | +1.8% (YoY) |
| NZD/USD (monthly average, USD) | 2026--09 period | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| 2-year swap rate (month-end, %) | 2026--09 period | 3.93 | 3.65 |
| New Zealand 2-year bond yield (month-end, %) | 2026--09 period | 3.79 | 3.57 |
| New Zealand 10-year bond yield (month-end, %) | 2026--09 period | 4.94 | 4.71 |
| Policy rate (OCR, month-end, %) | 2026--09 period | 2.75 | 2.50 |
金融政策報告（MPS）のRBNZの見通し（2026-09-02）
None
Economic Outlook
30% Probability of recession within 1 years
The New Zealand economy is heading toward a recovery supported by the export sector and improving terms of trade, though the recovery is uneven. Elevated fuel prices, negative real wage growth, employment uncertainty, and depressed housing prices are weighing on household consumption and domestic-oriented businesses. While the unemployment rate remains high, labor market and household conditions are expected to gradually improve along with the economic recovery.
- 実質GDP前年比は2026年6月に2.5%へとプラス成長に転じている（強いサイン）
- 失業率が2026年6月に5.6%へと上昇している（冷えているサイン）
- 実質賃金（平均時給−CPI）が2026年6月に-1.2%とマイナスに転じている（冷えているサイン）
- Prices of key exports such as meat and dairy remain high and firm (strong signal)
Recent RBNZ documents
| 2026-09-02 | +1 | Monetary Policy | OCR decision 2026-09-02（OCR 2.75%・Record of Meeting つき） Direction of maintaining higher rates while leaving room for additional hikes |
| 2026-09-02 | +1 | Monetary Policy | Monetary Policy Statement 2026-09-02（金融政策報告） Possibility of additional hikes |
Future
Policy rate scenarios (current vs. future path)
| When Most likely rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later 2.75% | 40% | 60% | 0% |
| 6 months later 3.00% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| 1 years later 3.00% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| 2 years later 2.75% | 30% | 40% | 30% |
Rationale
- 材料3：消費者物価（総合）前年比が2026年6月に4.1%へと上昇し, RBNZの目標範囲（1〜3％）を超えているため.
- 材料5・6：金融政策報告（2026-09-02）において, 中期的にインフレを2%に戻すためOCRをさらに引き上げる必要があるかもしれないとされているため.
- 材料5・6：一部の委員がエネルギー価格の持続的な上昇や価格設定行動への影響による上振れリスクを指摘しているため.
- 材料3：2年スワップや2年債の利回りが上昇傾向にあり, 市場が追加利上げを織り込みつつあるため.
Changes from previous update
- None
Conditions for view change
- Deterioration of the situation in the Middle East has kept fuel and energy prices elevated, increasing the persistence of inflation →
- Downside risks to the economy become apparent due to a further rise in the unemployment rate and sluggish household consumption →
- Prices of non-tradeables and core inflation rate drop rapidly and fall within the target range →