PBoC outlook (Past, Present, Future)
Generated: 2026-10-21 01:55 | AI: gemini-3.5-flash-lite | *AI outlooks are estimated from materials and are not guaranteed
Past
PBoC and NBS document thermometer trends (+ tightening / - easing)
Policy Temperature (60-day avg) -0.20
LPR (de facto policy rate) and market interest rates
LPR 1年 3.00%LPR 5年超 3.50%3か月の銀行間金利 1.49%
Prices (YoY) Below 0 = Prices falling (deflationary tendency)
Headline CPI 0.90%Core (excluding food and energy) 1.00%Producer Price Index (PPI) 5.00%
USD/CNY (End of month, 1 USD = CNY) Rising = CNY depreciation
USD/CNY 6.69 CNY
Employment
Unemployment rate (urban survey) 5.20%
製造業PMI（企業の景気の実感） 50より上＝景気が良い, 50より下＝悪い
Manufacturing PMI 50.10
Economy (Real GDP YoY)
Real GDP (YoY): 4.50%
Previous outlooks
| Date created | When | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 01:55 Policy temperature 0.0 | 3 months later 3.00% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 1 years later 3.00% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
Present
Overall policy temperature (based on documents, indicators, and markets)
+0.0 Neutral
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
Continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy and policy adjustments addressing insufficient domestic demand and structural challenges are expected.
人民銀行・国家統計局の資料の温度計（直近30日の資料・3件）
+0.00 Neutral
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) sets the continuation of a "moderately accommodative" monetary policy as its policy, and maintains appropriate liquidity by comprehensively utilizing and timely adjusting monetary policy tools. It is also promoting interest rate liberalization reforms, such as transitioning from a mechanism using the LPR as a single benchmark to diverse interest rate benchmarks.
今のLPR（1年）：3.00%（2025-05に変更）
Latest Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI year-on-year | 2026--09 period | +0.9% (YoY) | +0.8% (YoY) |
| Core inflation (excluding food and energy) YoY | 2026--09 period | +1.0% (YoY) | +1.0% (YoY) |
| Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY | 2026--09 period | +5.0% (YoY) | +3.8% (YoY) |
| Manufacturing PMI (Above 50 = Good economy) | 2026--09 period | 50.10 | 49.80 |
| Unemployment rate (urban survey, %) | 2026--09 period | 5.20 | 5.30 |
| Real GDP YoY | 2026 Q3 period | +4.5% (YoY) | +4.3% (YoY) |
| USD/CNY (1 USD = CNY) | 2026-10-16 | 6.69 | 6.69 |
| CNY 3-month interbank rate (Monthly, %) | 2026--08 period | 1.49 | 1.54 |
| LPR over 5 year (Mortgage benchmark, %) | 2026--10 period | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Policy rate (LPR 1 year, %) | 2025--05 period | 3.00 | 3.10 |
政府・人民銀行の目標（2026-10-19）
| 2026 | |
|---|---|
| GDP | 4.6% |
| CPI | 0.9% |
Economic Outlook
20% Probability of recession within 1 years
第1〜第3四半期の経済は圧力に対して安定した発展を維持し, 実質GDPは前年同期比4.6%増となった. 物価や失業率は概ね安定しているものの, 国内の需要不足や不動産開発投資の減少といった構造的課題が依然として残っている.
- Real estate development investment has decreased significantly YoY
- The imbalance between domestic oversupply and insufficient effective demand is severe
- Manufacturing PMI remains at a modest level of 50.1
Recent PBoC and NBS documents
| 2026-10-19 | +0 | Speech | Keynote Speech by Governor Pan Gongsheng at the Annual Conference of F Modernization of the monetary policy framework and promotion of interest rate liberalization reform |
| 2026-10-19 | +0 | Statistics | National Economy was Generally Stable with New Achievement Made in Hig Continuation of the current "moderately accommodative" macro policy and implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand |
| 2026-09-24 | +0 | Monetary Policy | PBOC Monetary Policy Committee Holds Q3 2026 Meeting Maintenance of appropriate liquidity and continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy |
| 2026-09-15 | -1 | Statistics | National Economy Remained Steady with Innovation-Led and High-Quality Need to strengthen adjustments in macro policies to support the economy and stimulate domestic demand |
Future
Policy rate scenarios (current vs. future path)
| When Most likely rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later 3.00% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 6 months later 3.00% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 1 years later 3.00% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 2 years later 3.00% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
Rationale
- The continuation of a "moderately accommodative" monetary policy is set as a policy at the 3th quarter meeting of the PBoC Monetary Policy Committee
- 直近の第1〜第3四半期の実質GDP前年比が4.6%となり, 都市部調査失業率も5.2%と概ね安定していること
- While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is stable, rising 0.9% YoY, challenges of domestic oversupply and insufficient effective demand are pointed out, and current levels are expected to be maintained
Changes from previous update
- None
Conditions for view change
- Real GDP growth rate and Consumer Price Index (CPI) drop significantly, strengthening deflationary pressures → Probability of rate cut rises
- The real estate market slump prolongs, accelerating the decline in fixed asset investment -> Probability of rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio cuts increases