大口・小口（円の先物・10/13時点） 大口投機 買い越し 50,207枚（先週から-12,118）・3年の中での位置 65 小口 売り越し 1,620枚 Details
Net long = JPY buying (USD/JPY moving lower)
BoJ Outlook (Past, Present, Future)
Generated: 2026-10-20 20:55 | AI: gemini-3.5-flash-lite | *AI outlooks are estimated from materials and are not guaranteed
Past
BoJ policy temperature trend (+hawkish / -dovish)
Policy Temperature (60-day avg) 1.10
Policy rate and government bond yields (2-year yield = market rate hike expectations)
Policy rate 1.25%日本2年債 1.91%日本10年債 2.93%
Consumer price index (year-on-year) BoJ target is core CPI at 2%
Headline 1.89%Core (excluding fresh food) 1.73%Core-core (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.93%Services: 1.15%
Energy prices fluctuate significantly due to government subsidies, crude oil, and JPY depreciation
Energy prices (YoY): -0.68%
USD/JPY (month-end) JPY depreciation raises import prices and supports BoJ rate hikes
USD/JPY 158.00 JPY
Employment and Wages
Unemployment rate 2.50%Wages (manufacturing hourly, year-on-year) 4.98%
Real wages: below 0 means wage growth lags inflation
Real wages (wages - consumer prices) 3.03%
Economy (Real GDP YoY): Below 0 is a recession sign
Real GDP (YoY): 0.73%
Previous outlooks
| Date created | When | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 20:55 Policy temperature 1.17 | 3 months later 1.50% | 70% | 30% | 0% |
| 1 years later 1.75% | 85% | 15% | 0% | |
| 2026-10-19 15:02 Policy temperature 1.18 | 3 months later 1.50% | 70% | 30% | 0% |
| 1 years later 1.75% | 85% | 15% | 0% |
Present
Overall policy temperature (based on documents, indicators, and markets)
+1.2 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
The policy of additional hikes continues, and a hawkish stance leaning toward hikes is maintained.
日銀の発言の温度計（直近30日の資料・9件）
+1.17 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
The BoJ indicates a policy of continuing to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary easing, stating that the economy and prices are generally moving in line with the baseline outlook. Recent lectures and meetings have also pointed out that the underlying inflation rate is approaching 2% and that real rates remain at low levels, sharing an active stance toward additional hikes.
今の政策金利（無担保コールレートの誘導目標）：1.25%（2026-09-18に変更）
Latest Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI year-on-year | 2026--08 period | +1.9% (YoY) | +1.9% (YoY) |
| Core CPI (excluding fresh food) year-on-year *Price targeted by the BoJ | 2026--08 period | +1.7% (YoY) | +1.8% (YoY) |
| Core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) year-on-year | 2026--08 period | +1.9% (YoY) | +1.9% (YoY) |
| Service prices year-on-year | 2026--08 period | +1.1% (YoY) | +1.2% (YoY) |
| Energy prices YoY | 2026--08 period | -0.7% (YoY) | +0.6% (YoY) |
| Tokyo Ku-bu core CPI year-on-year (about 3 weeks earlier than nationwide) | 2026--09 period | +2.7% (YoY) | +1.8% (YoY) |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 2026--08 period | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Wages (manufacturing hourly) year-on-year | 2026--07 period | +5.0% (YoY) | +5.8% (YoY) |
| Real GDP YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +0.7% (YoY) | +0.5% (YoY) |
| USD/JPY (New York noon, JPY) | 2026-10-16 | 158.00 | 158.18 |
| Japan 2-year bond yield (%) | 2026-10-20 | 1.91 | 1.90 |
| Japan 10-year bond yield (%) | 2026-10-20 | 2.93 | 2.94 |
| Policy rate (unsecured overnight call rate target, %) | 2026-09-18 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
展望レポートの政策委員の見通し（中央値・2026-07-31）
| Fiscal 2026 | Fiscal 2027 | Fiscal 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | +0.6% | +0.8% | +0.8% |
| Core CPI | +2.5% | +2.4% | +2.0% |
| Core-core CPI | +2.5% | +2.6% | +2.2% |
Economic Outlook
15% Probability of recession within 1 years
Japan's economy is recovering moderately, showing some weaker signs in places, but remaining resilient against the backdrop of improving employment and income environments. The mechanism where wages and prices rise moderately while referencing each other is maintained, and the economy is expected to continue growing moderately going forward.
- Real wages remain positive
- Labor supply and demand remain tight
- Corporate profits remain at high levels and capital expenditures are on a moderate upward trend
Recent BoJ materials
| 2026-10-20 | +1 | Press conference | 総裁記者会見（10月16日） Policy to continue additional hikes in line with the economic and price outlook |
| 2026-10-16 | +1 | Speech | [Speech] (National Credit Union Convention) Governor Ueda (Read by Deputy Governor Uchida) Policy to continue implementing additional hikes if the economic and price outlook is realized |
| 2026-10-16 | +1 | Press conference | 小枝審議委員記者会見（10月15日） Policy to consider additional hikes in a timely and appropriate manner while examining economic, price, and financial conditions |
| 2026-10-15 | +1 | Speech | [Speech] "Japan's Economic and Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy" (Fukui Financial and Economic Meeting) Member Koeda Continued moderate additional hikes in response to economic and price conditions |
| 2026-10-06 | +1 | Speech | [Speech] (National Securities Convention) Governor Ueda Policy to continue implementing additional hikes if the economic and price outlook is realized |
| 2026-10-05 | +1 | Speech | [Speech] "AI, Big Data, and Monetary Policy" (Japanese translation of opening remarks at ECONDAT 2026 Fall Meeting) Deputy Governor Uchida Continue appropriate policy management while carefully analyzing economic and financial indicators such as the impact of AI |
| 2026-10-01 | +2 | Monetary Policy | 金融政策決定会合における主な意見（9月17, 18日開催分） Possibility of continuous and early additional hikes in line with the realization of the economic and price outlook |
| 2026-09-28 | +1 | Monetary Policy | 金融政策決定会合議事要旨（7月30, 31日開催分） Direction to continue additional hikes if the economic and price outlook is realized |
| 2026-09-24 | +1 | Monetary Policy | 総裁定例記者会見（9月18日） Direction to proceed with phased additional hikes while examining the outlook and risks |
| 2026-09-18 | +1 | Monetary Policy | On Changes in Guideline for Money Market Operations Policy to continue additional hikes in line with the economic and price outlook. |
| 2026-09-11 | +1 | Press conference | 増審議委員記者会見（9月10日） Direction to proceed with additional hikes in line with the economic and price outlook |
| 2026-09-10 | +1 | Speech | [Speech] "Japan's Economic and Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy" (Fukui Financial and Economic Meeting) Member Masu Policy to continue considering additional hikes in line with the economic and price outlook. |
Future
Policy rate scenarios (current vs. future path)
| When Most likely rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later 1.50% | 70% | 30% | 0% |
| 6 months later 1.50% | 80% | 20% | 0% |
| 1 years later 1.75% | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| 2 years later 2.00% | 90% | 10% | 0% |
Rationale
- 材料2より, 現在の政策金利は1.25%である.
- 材料4・5より, 直近の講演や会合等での日銀の姿勢を示す温度計の平均は+1.17とタカ派寄りで, 見通しに沿った追加利上げの方針が強調されている.
- 材料3より, 消費者物価やコアCPIが1%台後半から2%前後で推移し, 実質賃金もプラスを維持している.
- 材料5の小枝審議委員の発言（10月15日）において, 中立金利のレンジが"1%より相応に上"にあるとされている.
Changes from previous update
- There are no major changes from the previous outlook regarding the basic economic and price perception or the hawkish hike policy.
Conditions for view change
- Worsening Middle East situation causes crude oil prices to surge, putting serious downward pressure on the economy -> Probability of a hike decreases and probability of a hold increases
- Year-on-year consumer prices and core CPI drop rapidly, falling below 1% -> Probability of a hike decreases