COT positions (EUR futures as of 10/13) 大口投機 売り越し 137,573枚（先週から-38,241）・3年の中での位置 0（売りが3年で最大級） 小口 買い越し 26,348枚 Details
Net long = EUR buy / USD sell
ECB Outlook (Past, Present, Future)
Generated: 2026-10-21 13:31 | AI: gemini-3.8-flash | *AI outlooks are estimated from materials and are not guaranteed
Past
ECB policy temperature trend (+hawkish / -dovish)
Policy Temperature (60-day avg) 1.00
Policy rate and 2-year yield (Market expectations)
Deposit facility rate: 2.50%Eurozone 2-year treasury 3.05%
Inflation (YoY) - ECB target: 2%
HICP (Headline): 3.80%Core HICP: 2.50%Services: 3.20%
Energy prices: Sharp spikes tend to spread to other prices and wages with a slight lag.
Energy prices (YoY): 18.90%
Employment and Wages
Unemployment rate 6.40%Negotiated wages (YoY): 2.44%
Real wages: below 0 means wage growth lags inflation
Real wages (Negotiated wages - HICP): -0.56%
Economy (Real GDP YoY): Below 0 is a recession sign
Real GDP (YoY): 1.20%
Previous outlooks
| Date created | When | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 13:31 Policy temperature 0.75 | 3 months later 2.50% | 20% | 75% | 5% |
| 1 years later 2.50% | 20% | 60% | 20% | |
| 2026-10-19 02:40 Policy temperature 0.86 | 3 months later 2.50% | 20% | 75% | 5% |
| 1 years later 2.50% | 20% | 60% | 20% |
Present
Overall policy temperature (based on documents, indicators, and markets)
+0.8 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
Only neutral speeches added; no change in energy caution or rate hike stance.
ECB Policy Thermometer (materials from past 30 days, 7 items)
+0.75 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
The ECB remained vigilant against inflation upside risks driven by soaring energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and delivered a 25bp hike in 2026 9. It takes a meeting-by-meeting data-dependent approach without committing to a preset rate path, leaving room for further hikes.
Current policy rate (deposit facility rate): 2.50% (changed on 2026-09-16)
Latest Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| HICP (Headline CPI) YoY | 2026--09 period | +3.8% (YoY) | +3.2% (YoY) |
| Core HICP (ex-food & energy) YoY | 2026--09 period | +2.5% (YoY) | +2.4% (YoY) |
| Services inflation YoY (emphasized by ECB) | 2026--09 period | +3.2% (YoY) | +3.0% (YoY) |
| Energy prices YoY | 2026--09 period | +18.9% (YoY) | +14.3% (YoY) |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 2026--08 period | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| Negotiated wages (labor-management agreed) YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +2.4% (YoY) | +2.6% (YoY) |
| Real GDP YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +1.2% (YoY) | +0.6% (YoY) |
| Eurozone 2-year bond yield (AAA-rated = Germany etc., %) | 2026-10-19 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| Policy rate (Deposit facility rate, %) | 2026-10-21 | 2.50 | 2.25 |
ECB staff macroeconomic projections (2026-09-10)
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HICP | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Core HICP | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| GDP | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% |
Economic Outlook
15% Probability of recession within 1 years
Headline HICP accelerated to 3.80% due to soaring energy prices, putting downward pressure on purchasing power as real wages sank to -0.56%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stood at a historic low of 6.40%, and real GDP showed resilience at 1.20% YoY. Looking ahead, a gradual economic recovery is expected as uncertainties ease and the energy shock gradually resolves.
- YoY real wage growth dropped into negative territory at -0.56% in 2026 6 (cooling signal)
- YoY energy prices surged to 18.90% in 2026 9, burdening households and businesses (cooling signal)
- Unemployment rate stayed low at 6.40% as of 2026 8 (still strong signal)
- 実質GDP前年比が2026年6月に1.20%へ持ち直している点（まだ強いサイン）
Recent ECB documents
| 2026-10-21 | +0 | Speech | Philip R. Lane: Euro liquidity lines and the international monetary sy Mainly structural explanations of international liquidity supply frameworks, with no hints on the near-term rate direction |
| 2026-10-17 | +1 | Speech | Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement Maintaining a cautious stance on holding rates and additional responses due to vigilance against elevated inflation pressure and energy shocks |
| 2026-10-13 | +0 | Speech | Philip R. Lane: The AI opportunity for Europe Data-dependent wait-and-see (neutral) |
| 2026-10-08 | +1 | Monetary Policy | Meeting of 9-10 September 2026 Leaving room for additional hikes depending on upside inflation risks and data |
| 2026-10-06 | +1 | Interview | Philip R. Lane: Interview with Ansa Maintaining prudent monetary policy while monitoring data and inflation trends |
| 2026-10-05 | +1 | Speech | Philip R. Lane: Diagnostic Challenges for ECB Monetary Policy Maintaining appropriate rate levels while continuing cautious judgment depending on data |
| 2026-09-30 | +1 | Interview | Christine Lagarde: Interview with La Croix Maintaining high rates or the possibility of a hike while monitoring inflation vigilance and economic impact |
| 2026-09-10 | +2 | Monetary Policy | Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A) A stance of not ruling out additional hikes depending on data |
| 2026-09-10 | +1 | Monetary Policy | ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2026 A stance of maintaining high policy rates for a long time against the backdrop of upward revisions to the inflation outlook and solid economic activity and employment |
| 2026-08-27 | +1 | Monetary Policy | Meeting of 22-23 July 2026 Cautiously maintaining a stance to prepare for upside inflation risks while holding the policy rate for the time being and scrutinizing data |
Future
Policy rate scenarios (current vs. future path)
| When Most likely rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later 2.50% | 20% | 75% | 5% |
| 6 months later 2.50% | 25% | 65% | 10% |
| 1 years later 2.50% | 20% | 60% | 20% |
| 2 years later 2.25% | 10% | 60% | 30% |
Rationale
- 材料3において, HICP総合前年比が2026年9月に3.80%へ跳ね上がり, エネルギー物価前年比も18.90%と急騰していること.
- 材料3でユーロ圏2年債利回りが2026年10月末に3.05%と, 現行の預金ファシリティ金利2.50%を上回る水準で推移していること.
- In material 5, monetary policy meeting minutes and remarks by President Lagarde suggest the possibility of additional hikes depending on data to prevent the spread of supply shocks.
- 材料6のスタッフ経済見通しで, 2027年と2028年のインフレ見通しが上方修正され, 中期的なインフレ上振れリスクが意識されていること.
Changes from previous update
- 2026-10-21にレーン理事の流動性枠組みに関する講演（点数0）が加わったものの, 金融政策の方向性に関する新たな示唆は含まれず, 金利見通しや確率配分を前回のまま据え置いた.
Conditions for view change
- Energy prices stabilize, and headline HICP year-on-year drops significantly -> Expectations for additional hikes recede, and probabilities of rate hold and rate cut rise
- Secondary spillover effects such as agreed wages and service prices strengthen due to high energy impact -> Hike probability rises further