大口・小口（ポンドの先物・10/13時点） 大口投機 売り越し 106,964枚（先週から-9,353）・3年の中での位置 0（売りが3年で最大級） 小口 売り越し 14,480枚 Details
Net long = Long GBP / Short USD
BoE (UK) Outlook (Past, Present, Future)
Generated: 2026-10-21 15:21 | AI: gemini-3.5-flash-lite | *AI outlooks are estimated from materials and are not guaranteed
Past
BoE thermometer trend (+hawkish / -dovish)
Policy Temperature (60-day avg) 1.09
Policy rate and government bond yield (5-year yield = market interest rate expectation)
Bank Rate 3.75%英国5年債 4.91%英国10年債 5.34%
Inflation (YoY) BoE target is 2%
CPI (Headline) 3.50%Core CPI 2.80%Services: 3.70%
GBP/USD (End of month) Strong GBP lowers import prices and slightly reduces the need for hikes
GBP/USD 1.33 USD
Employment and Wages
Unemployment rate 4.70%Wages (Regular pay, YoY) 3.70%
Real wages: below 0 means wage growth lags inflation
Real wages (Regular pay - CPI) 0.60%
Economy (Real GDP YoY): Below 0 is a recession sign
Real GDP (YoY): 1.40%
Previous outlooks
| Date created | When | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 02:22 Policy temperature 1.0 | 3 months later 3.75% | 40% | 55% | 5% |
| 1 years later 3.75% | 35% | 40% | 25% | |
| 2026-10-19 17:25 Policy temperature 0.8 | 3 months later 3.75% | 40% | 55% | 5% |
| 1 years later 3.75% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
Present
Overall policy temperature (based on documents, indicators, and markets)
+1.2 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
A hawkish stance is maintained amid inflation concerns driven by high energy prices and sticky wages.
BOEの発言の温度計（直近30日の資料・6件）
+1.00 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
BOEはインフレ再燃や二次的影響への警戒から政策金利を3.75%に据え置いていますが, 委員の間では追加利上げを求める声も根強くあります. 9月のMPC会合では6対3の多数決で据え置きが決定されたものの, 複数の委員が利上げに投票するなどタカ派的な意見が続いています.
今の政策金利（Bank Rate）：3.75%（2025-12-18に変更）
Latest Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (CPI, Headline) YoY | 2026--09 period | +3.5% (YoY) | +3.1% (YoY) |
| Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) YoY | 2026--09 period | +2.8% (YoY) | +2.6% (YoY) |
| Services CPI YoY (BoE key focus) | 2026--09 period | +3.7% (YoY) | +3.4% (YoY) |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 2026--07 period | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| Wages (regular pay, 3-month avg.) YoY | 2026--08 period | +3.7% (YoY) | +3.6% (YoY) |
| Real GDP YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +1.4% (YoY) | +0.8% (YoY) |
| GBP/USD (New York noon, USD) | 2026-10-16 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| UK 5-year bond yield (%) | 2026-10-16 | 4.91 | 4.92 |
| UK 10-year bond yield (%) | 2026-10-16 | 5.34 | 5.34 |
| Policy rate (Bank Rate, %) | 2025-12-18 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
金融政策報告（MPR）のBOEの見通し（2026-07-30）
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| GDP | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% |
| Unemployment rate | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
Economic Outlook
25% Probability of recession within 1 years
UK economic GDP growth is projected to remain subdued for the time being, weighed down by high energy costs squeezing real incomes and tight financial conditions. While labor market slack is expanding slightly, wage growth outpaces the target, requiring a careful assessment of the balance against inflationary pressures.
- 失業率が直近のデータで4.7%〜4.9%台と緩やかに変動している（材料3）
- 実質GDP前年比の伸びが1%台前半で推移している（材料3）
- 定期給与の伸びが依然として3%台後半で高止まりしている（材料3）
Recent BoE documents
| 2026-10-20 | +2 | Speech | Learning about earnings: Can we rely on labour market slack to mitigat Maintain aggressive tightening stance, including potential rate hikes |
| 2026-10-08 | +1 | Speech | Financial resilience in an age of repeated shocks - speech by Andrew Inflation concerns keep market focused on maintaining current high rates or potential further hikes |
| 2026-10-01 | +2 | Speech | Financial conditions: what’s priced in? − speech by Catherine L. Mann Early further rate hikes to curb inflation |
| 2026-09-29 | -1 | Speech | Searching for signposts − speech by Alan Taylor Gradual rate cuts if secondary inflation effects remain limited |
| 2026-09-28 | +1 | Speech | Quantitative tightening: the next chapter − speech by Dave Ramsden Potential rate hikes depending on inflation upside pressures |
| 2026-09-24 | +1 | Speech | The outlook for inflation − speech by Clare Lombardelli Potential further hikes if high energy prices persist |
| 2026-09-17 | +1 | Monetary Policy | Bank rate maintained at 3.75% - September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary Amid rising inflation upside risks, potential further hikes are in focus |
| 2026-09-17 | +1 | Interview | Transcript of the Governor's pooled broadcast interview given on 17 Se Expect to hold rates and pause cuts for the time being |
| 2026-09-17 | +1 | Letter | Exchange of letters between the Governor and the Chancellor regarding Maintain 3.75% for now, continuing vigilance against inflation resurgence and secondary effects |
| 2026-09-03 | +2 | Speech | Homophones – Remarks by Huw Pill Hike policy rate to 4% |
Future
Policy rate scenarios (current vs. future path)
| When Most likely rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later 3.75% | 40% | 55% | 5% |
| 6 months later 4.00% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| 1 years later 3.75% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| 2 years later 3.50% | 20% | 30% | 50% |
Rationale
- MPC会合において6対3の多数決で据え置きとなったが, 複数メンバーが追加利上げに投票しており引き締め圧力が続いている（材料5）.
- 中東紛争によるエネルギー価格の高騰により, 2026年末から2027年初頭にかけてインフレ率の再上昇が予測されている（材料5, 材料6）.
- Underlying wage growth remains above the target level, maintaining vigilance against secondary effects (Factor 5).
- 英5年債利回りが高水準を維持しており, 市場でも引き締め的な金利環境が意識されている（材料3）.
Changes from previous update
- None
Conditions for view change
- Service prices and wage growth decelerate faster than market expectations → The probability of a hike decreases, while the probability of a hold or cut increases.
- The Middle East conflict intensifies, further prolonging high energy prices. → Probability of a rate hike increases