大口・小口（豪ドルの先物・10/13時点） 大口投機 売り越し 117,299枚（先週から-18,711）・3年の中での位置 0（売りが3年で最大級） 小口 買い越し 10,929枚 Details
Net long = Long AUD / Short USD
RBA (Australia) Outlook (Past, Present, Future)
Generated: 2026-10-21 15:29 | AI: gemini-3.5-flash-lite | *AI outlooks are estimated from materials and are not guaranteed
Past
RBA policy temperature trend (+Hawkish / -Dovish)
Policy Temperature (60-day avg) 1.19
Policy rate and government bond yield (2-year yield = market interest rate expectation)
Cash rate 4.60%豪州2年債 4.92%豪州10年債 5.31%
物価（前年比） RBAの目標は2〜3％（真ん中の2.5％）
Monthly CPI 4.00%Trimmed mean (quarterly) 3.60%予想インフレ率（消費者・1年先） 4.90%
AUD/USD (month-end). Stronger AUD lowers import prices and slightly reduces the need for hikes
AUD/USD 0.70 USD
Employment and Wages
Unemployment rate 4.70%Wages (Wage Price Index WPI, YoY) 3.20%
Real wages: below 0 means wage growth lags inflation
Real wages (WPI-CPI) -0.70%
Economy (Real GDP YoY): Below 0 is a recession sign
Real GDP (YoY): 2.10%
Previous outlooks
| Date created | When | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 15:29 Policy temperature 1.3 | 3 months later 4.60% | 30% | 70% | 0% |
| 1 years later 4.35% | 10% | 40% | 50% | |
| 2026-10-20 20:34 Policy temperature 1.57 | 3 months later 4.60% | 30% | 70% | 0% |
| 1 years later 4.35% | 10% | 40% | 50% | |
| 2026-10-20 02:54 Policy temperature 1.43 | 3 months later 4.60% | 40% | 60% | 0% |
| 1 years later 4.35% | 20% | 50% | 30% |
Present
Overall policy temperature (based on documents, indicators, and markets)
+1.1 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
Recent speeches and minutes maintain strong vigilance against inflation and hints of further hikes, keeping a hawkish stance.
RBAの発言の温度計（直近30日の資料・8件）
+1.30 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
Treating above-target inflation as its top priority, the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60% at its recent meeting. Citing cost pressures from Middle East tensions and the AI boom, as well as domestic supply shortages, the Board has indicated it will not rule out further hikes if necessary and will maintain a restrictive policy rate.
今の政策金利（キャッシュレート）：4.60%（2026-09-30に変更）
Latest Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly headline CPI YoY | 2026--08 period | +4.0% (YoY) | +3.5% (YoY) |
| Trimmed mean (RBA key inflation measure, quarterly) YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +3.6% (YoY) | +3.5% (YoY) |
| Quarterly headline CPI YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +3.9% (YoY) | +4.1% (YoY) |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 2026--09 period | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| Wage Price Index (WPI) YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +3.2% (YoY) | +3.2% (YoY) |
| Real GDP YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +2.1% (YoY) | +2.5% (YoY) |
| Consumer inflation expectation (1-year ahead, %) | 2026 Q3 period | 4.90 | 5.50 |
| AUD/USD (USD) | 2026-10-20 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Australia 2-year bond yield (%) | 2026-10-14 | 4.92 | 4.89 |
| Australia 10-year bond yield (%) | 2026-10-14 | 5.31 | 5.29 |
| Policy rate (Cash Rate target, %) | 2026-09-30 | 4.60 | 4.35 |
金融政策報告（SMP）のRBAの見通し（2026-08-11）
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| Trimmed mean | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| GDP | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Unemployment rate | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% |
Economic Outlook
15% Probability of recession within 1 years
Although domestic demand and the housing market have cooled somewhat due to monetary tightening, the Australian economy continues to grow at a solid, trend-like pace. However, tight labor markets and overseas cost pressures are keeping inflation above target, making the response to high inflation the top priority.
- Real wages remain in negative territory year-on-year
- 失業率が2026-09時点で4.7%までやや上昇していること
- Housing price growth and transactions have slowed, easing market conditions
Recent RBA Documents
| 2026-10-21 | +1 | Speech | Fireside Chat by Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor at Citi’s Australia & Maintaining a restrictive rate stance while keeping the door open to further hikes |
| 2026-10-19 | +1 | Speech | Fireside Chat at the Commonwealth Bank’s Global Markets Conference (Chr Hold rates and maintain high levels |
| 2026-10-13 | +2 | Monetary Policy | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Board Meeting（2026-09-29の会合） Aiming to maintain and explore restrictive interest rate levels, without ruling out further hikes as needed to curb inflation. |
| 2026-09-29 | +2 | Monetary Policy | Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision A tightening stance that does not rule out the possibility of additional hikes, given persistent inflation and the materialization of upside risks |
| 2026-09-29 | +1 | Press conference | Media Conference: Monetary Policy Decision – 29 September 2026（Michele Governor Bullock notes that future decisions depend on data, but does not rule out further hikes if necessary |
| 2026-09-22 | +0 | Speech | A Wage-price Spiral: What are the Chances? (Iain Ross AO - Monetary Policy) A neutral stance focused on assessing inflation and labor market trends |
| 2026-09-22 | +1 | Speech | Fireside Chat at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia ( Cautious yet alert stance, signaling the maintenance of high interest rates or potential additional hikes due to inflation risks |
| 2026-09-22 | +1 | Speech | Interview on The Pay Off with Sylvia Jeffreys, 9 Now Podcast (Sarah Hunt Maintaining vigilance on inflation and the possibility of further hikes |
| 2026-09-18 | +1 | Speech | Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee o Maintaining a tightening stance due to concerns over sticky inflation, with the possibility of additional hikes depending on data |
| 2026-09-14 | +1 | Speech | Fireside Chat at the Regional Australia Institute’s Regions Rising Nat Cautious of elevated inflation and upside risks, maintaining a rate hold or tightening stance |
| 2026-09-08 | +1 | Speech | Interview with Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, on ABC 7.30 Assessing data and risks while remaining alert to the possibility of further hikes |
| 2026-09-08 | +1 | Speech | Fireside Chat at the AFR Property Summit (Sarah Hunter - Assistant Governor) Strong vigilance on inflation and upside risks, leaving room for the possibility of further hikes. |
Future
Policy rate scenarios (current vs. future path)
| When Most likely rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later 4.60% | 30% | 70% | 0% |
| 6 months later 4.60% | 20% | 60% | 20% |
| 1 years later 4.35% | 10% | 40% | 50% |
| 2 years later 4.10% | 0% | 30% | 70% |
Rationale
- 材料2：現在のキャッシュレート誘導目標は4.60%に引き上げられていること
- 材料3：トリム平均インフレ率が2026-06時点で前年比3.60%とRBAの目標レンジを上回って推移していること
- 材料5の2026-10-21の講演において, アンドリュー・ハウザー副総裁がインフレ見通しの悪化と上方リスクの現実化を指摘し, 必要であれば利上げを行う姿勢を示していること
- 材料5の2026-10-13の議事要旨で, 全員一致で4.60%への引き上げが決定され, 引き締め的な金利水準の維持が示唆されていること
Changes from previous update
- No major changes have been made as no new economic indicators or policy announcements have been released since the previous outlook, maintaining a hawkish stance focused on high rates and vigilance against further hikes.
Conditions for view change
- Trimmed mean inflation falls rapidly and returns to the target range → Probability of rate cut rises
- Inflation accelerates further due to rising crude oil prices and cost pressures from worsening Middle East tensions → Probability of a rate hike increases