COT positions (USD index futures as of 10/13) 大口投機 買い越し 12,919枚（先週から+908）・3年の中での位置 75 小口 買い越し 1,909枚 Details
Net long = USD long
Fed Outlook (Past, Present, Future)
Generated: 2026-10-21 01:58 | AI: gemini-3.5-flash-lite | *AI outlooks are estimated from materials and are not guaranteed
Past
Fed policy thermometer trend (+hawkish / -dovish)
Policy Temperature (60-day avg) 1.42
Policy rate and 2-year yield (Market expectations)
Policy rate ceiling 4.00%US 2-year treasury 4.77%
Inflation (YoY) - Fed target is 2%
CPI 3.72%Core CPI 2.57%Core PCE 3.01%
Employment
Unemployment rate 4.20%Average hourly earnings (YoY) 3.02%
Real wages: below 0 means wage growth lags inflation
Real wage growth (Wage growth - CPI) -0.69%Energy & Food component (CPI - Core CPI) 1.15%
Initial jobless claims (k) - An early sign of economic downturn when rising
Initial jobless claims (Monthly average) 198.50
Previous outlooks
| Date created | When | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 01:58 Policy temperature 1.38 | 3 months later 4.00〜4.25% | 75% | 25% | 0% |
| 1 years later 3.75〜4.00% | 35% | 40% | 25% | |
| 2026-10-18 18:22 Policy temperature 1.38 | 3 months later 4.00〜4.25% | 70% | 30% | 0% |
| 1 years later 3.75〜4.10% | 30% | 40% | 30% |
Present
Overall policy temperature (based on documents, indicators, and markets)
+1.4 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
The policy temperature turned even more hawkish against the backdrop of persistent inflation and expectations for additional hikes.
Fed Policy Thermometer (materials from past 30 days, 7 items)
+1.38 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
The Fed remains vigilant against stickiness and upside risks in inflation, where the rate stays above the 2% target, and raised the policy rate by 9% to 0.25~3.75% at the recent 4.00 FOMC. Amid resilient economic activity and labor markets, multiple central bank officials have hinted at further monetary policy adjustments (additional hikes) to curb inflation.
Current policy rate: 3.75~4.00% | Dot plot median: end-2026 4.125% / end-2027 4.125% / end-2028 3.875% / end-2029 3.625% / Longer-run 3.25% (2026-09-16)
Latest Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (Consumer Price Index) | 2026--09 period | +3.72% (YoY) | +3.35% (YoY) |
| Core CPI (ex. food & energy) | 2026--09 period | +2.57% (YoY) | +2.45% (YoY) |
| PCE Price Index | 2026--08 period | +3.42% (YoY) | +3.36% (YoY) |
| Core PCE Price Index (Fed's preferred gauge) | 2026--08 period | +3.01% (YoY) | +2.98% (YoY) |
| Non-farm Payrolls (k) | 2026--09 period | +29k (MoM) | +133k (MoM) |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 2026--09 period | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 2026--09 period | +3.02% (YoY) | +3.11% (YoY) |
| Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) | 2026-10-10 | 199k | 198k |
| US 2-year Treasury Yield (%) | 2026-10-19 | 4.77 | 4.74 |
| Upper Bound of Policy Rate (%) | 2026-10-20 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
Economic Outlook
15% Probability of recession within 1 years
Economic activity and the labor market in the US continue to expand solidly. The unemployment rate remains stable at a historically low level of 4.1~4.2%, and initial jobless claims hold low. However, price pressures persist as inflation remains sticky above the 2% target and real wage growth stays in negative territory.
- Unemployment rate stable at a low level of 4.1~4.2% (strong signal)
- Initial jobless claims hovering around a monthly average of 20k (strong sign)
- YoY real wage growth stays in negative territory (2026 9, -0.69%) (cooling signal)
- CPI前年比が3%台後半（2026年9月 3.72%）へ再び加速（インフレがまだ強いサイン）
Recent Fed Documents
| 2026-10-08 | +1 | Speech | Waller, The Signaling Value of the Summary of Economic Projections Direction of additional hikes |
| 2026-10-07 | +2 | Monetary Policy | Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026 High probability of another 1 hike within the year |
| 2026-10-01 | +1 | Speech | Jefferson, The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy Maintaining high rates or potential additional hikes due to upside inflation risks |
| 2026-09-30 | +1 | Speech | Cook, The Dual Mandate in Rural America Stance of maintaining high rates and additional hikes to curb inflation |
| 2026-09-29 | +2 | Speech | Barr, Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy Possibility of further additional hikes to curb inflation |
| 2026-09-28 | +1 | Speech | Cook, An Update on AI and the Economy Stance of considering additional hikes as needed amid persistent inflationary pressures |
| 2026-09-23 | +1 | Speech | Barr, A Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter Possible additional hikes to curb inflation |
| 2026-09-16 | +1 | Monetary Policy | Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release econom Policy rate outlook revised upward due to inflation vigilance, with high rates to be maintained |
| 2026-09-16 | +2 | Monetary Policy | Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Maintaining hike stance to address persistent inflation |
Future
Market expectation (FedWatch): Next meeting 10/28 "hold" is 87%
Calculated from CME FedFunds futures prices. Views the rate outlook after the meeting based on the current rate (3.75~4.00%). *Meetings where the dot plot is released. As of 2026-10-21 14:46. Source: Independently calculated based on CME Group (30-day FedFunds futures) prices
| Meeting Market Expected Rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/28 Expectation 3.92% / 3.75~4.00% | 13% | 87% | 0% |
| 12/09* Expectation 4.14% / 4.00~4.25% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 01/27 Expectation 4.25% / 4.00~4.25% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 03/17* Expectation 4.43% / 4.25~4.50% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 04/28 Expectation 4.52% / 4.50~4.75% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 06/09* Expectation 4.62% / 4.50~4.75% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 07/28 Expectation 4.65% / 4.50~4.75% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 09/15* Expectation 4.69% / 4.50~4.75% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
Dot plot (2026-09-16): Fed officials' projections vs. market expectations
Median: end-2026 4.12% / end-4.12 2027% ... wait, end-2027 4.12% / end-2028 3.88% / end-2029 3.62% / Longer-run 3.25%. Dots above the dotted line (current rate) project hikes, and those below project cuts. If the orange diamond is above the red line (median), the market is more hawkish than the Fed; if below, more dovish.
Projections of 1 FOMC membersMedianMarket (futures) expectationDashed line = Current rate
Gap between market and Fed expectations (AI view)
Market FedWatch (FedFunds futures) prices in 100% additional hikes toward the end of 2026, aligning generally with the Fed dot plot median (end-2026 4.125%). Driven by high inflation and economic strength, the market leans strongly toward the Fed's hawkish stance.
Policy rate scenarios (current vs. future path)
| When Most likely rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later 4.00〜4.25% | 75% | 25% | 0% |
| 6 months later 4.00〜4.25% | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| 1 years later 3.75〜4.00% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| 2 years later 3.50〜3.75% | 20% | 35% | 45% |
Rationale
- [Material 5] Expectation of additional hikes backed by sticky inflation and upside risks in the 9 FOMC minutes (2026-10-07) and multiple speeches (Barr, Cook, Waller, etc.).
- 【材料3】コアPCE前年比が2026年3月以降も3%前後（8月3.01%）で推移し, 目標の2%を超えて高止まりしていること.
- [Material 3] Unemployment rate stays low at 2026~7% since 4.1 4.2 onwards, and initial jobless claims stabilize around 200k, providing an environment where labor market strength permits hikes.
- [Material 6] The latest dot plot (2026-09-16) raised the median policy rate outlook for 2026 and 2027 to 4.1%.
- [Material 7] Market FedWatch expectations price in a 100% probability of additional hikes toward year-end, with market rates also trending upward.
Changes from previous update
- 【材料5・7】9月FOMCでの利上げ決定およびその後の議事要旨・高官発言を受け, 市場およびFRBともに年内追加利上げへの確度がさらに高まったため, 3か月先の利上げ確率を前回（70%）から75%へ微上方修正した.
Conditions for view change
- Unemployment rate spikes above 4.5% → Expectations for further hikes recede, increasing the probability of a hold or cut
- Core PCE inflation clearly enters a downward trend → The necessity for additional hikes diminishes, shifting the outlook to a hold or cut
- Non-farm payrolls continuously record negative numbers → Cooling labor market rapidly raises the probability of a cut