大口・小口（カナダドルの先物・10/13時点） 大口投機 売り越し 94,765枚（先週から-4,602）・3年の中での位置 44 小口 売り越し 10,848枚 Details
Net long = Long CAD (USD/CAD moves lower)
BoC (Canada) Outlook (Past, Present, Future)
Generated: 2026-10-20 20:36 | AI: gemini-3.8-flash | *AI outlooks are estimated from materials and are not guaranteed
Past
BoC policy temperature trend (+hawkish / −dovish)
Policy Temperature (60-day avg) 1.00
Policy rate and government bond yield (2-year yield = market interest rate expectation)
Policy rate 2.25%カナダ2年債 3.33%カナダ10年債 3.93%
物価（前年比） BOCの目標は2％（1〜3％の範囲の真ん中）
Headline CPI 3.10%CPI-trim 1.80%CPI-median 1.90%
USD/CAD (month-end, 1 CAD per USD) • Higher = weaker CAD. Weaker CAD raises import prices
USD/CAD 1.41
Employment and Wages
Unemployment rate 6.50%Average hourly earnings (YoY) 2.34%
Real wages: below 0 means wage growth lags inflation
Real wages (Average hourly earnings – CPI) -0.76%
Economy (Real GDP YoY): Below 0 is a recession sign
Real GDP (YoY): 1.13%
Previous outlooks
| Date created | When | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 20:36 Policy temperature 1.0 | 3 months later 2.25% | 15% | 80% | 5% |
| 1 years later 2.25% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
Present
Overall policy temperature (based on documents, indicators, and markets)
+0.6 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
Inflation concerns persist due to high energy prices, but core remains low, pointing to a rate hold stance.
BOCの発言の温度計（直近30日の資料・1件）
+1.00 Hawkish
−2 dovish0+2 hawkish
The BoC held its policy rate at 2.25%, maintaining a steady rate stance for the time being while remaining vigilant against upside inflation risks from soaring energy prices. While the minutes and other documents point to uncertainties in economic recovery due to new US tariffs, they also signal readiness to adjust the policy rate if inflationary pressures become persistent.
今の政策金利：2.25%（2025-10-30に変更）
Latest Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Latest | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (CPI, Headline) YoY | 2026--09 period | +3.1% (YoY) | +3.0% (YoY) |
| CPI-trim (BoC's preferred core inflation measure) YoY | 2026--09 period | +1.8% (YoY) | +1.9% (YoY) |
| CPI-median (BoC's preferred core inflation measure) YoY | 2026--09 period | +1.9% (YoY) | +2.0% (YoY) |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 2026--09 period | 6.50 | 6.40 |
| Average hourly earnings YoY | 2026--09 period | +2.3% (YoY) | +2.0% (YoY) |
| Real GDP YoY | 2026 Q2 period | +1.1% (YoY) | +0.1% (YoY) |
| USD/CAD (1 CAD per USD) | 2026-10-20 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| Canada 2-year bond yield (%) | 2026-10-19 | 3.33 | 3.21 |
| Canada 10-year bond yield (%) | 2026-10-19 | 3.93 | 3.84 |
| Policy rate (Target for overnight rate, %) | 2025-10-30 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
金融政策報告（MPR）のBOCの見通し（2026-07-15）
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| Core | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| GDP | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
Economic Outlook
20% Probability of recession within 1 years
While real wages have dipped into negative territory and housing market activity remains subdued as the unemployment rate indicates excess supply at 6.5%, real GDP is showing signs of recovery from the previous quarter's slump. Headline CPI remains elevated due to energy price hikes driven by the situation in the Middle East, but the spillover to core inflation has been limited. Looking ahead, uncertainty surrounding new U.S. tariff measures will weigh on investment and employment, while a gradual economic recovery is expected alongside the absorption of excess capacity.
- Sign that real wages recently dipped into negative territory at -0.76%, putting pressure on household purchasing power
- Sign that the unemployment rate stands at 6.50%, indicating excess supply (spare capacity) across the economy
- Downward sign where U.S. tariff measures and trade friction cause companies to hold back on investment and hiring
- 実質GDPが2026年第2四半期に持ち直し（前期比年率2.5%増）, 成長が底堅さを見せているサイン
Recent BoC documents
| 2026-10-01 | +1 | Speech | Canada’s housing affordability dilemma (Carolyn Rogers) Placing top priority on price stability, showing a cautious stance on directly controlling the housing market through interest rates. |
| 2026-09-21 | +1 | Speech | Navigating uncertainty and adapting to change (Tiff Macklem) Stance of maintaining a wait-and-see approach for the time being, while not ruling out additional hikes depending on inflation persistence and risk trends |
| 2026-09-16 | +1 | Monetary Policy | Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of Likely to hold for the time being, but remaining vigilant against the risk of energy price inflation spillovers |
| 2026-09-02 | +1 | Monetary Policy | Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% Stance of maintaining a rate hold for the time being while remaining vigilant against upside inflation risks and economic trends |
| 2026-09-02 | +1 | Press conference | Monetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement (Tiff Macklem) Policy rate likely to be held for the time being |
Future
Policy rate scenarios (current vs. future path)
| When Most likely rate | Hike | Hold | Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months later 2.25% | 15% | 80% | 5% |
| 6 months later 2.25% | 30% | 65% | 5% |
| 1 years later 2.25% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| 2 years later 2.50% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
Rationale
- 【材料3・5】総合CPIはエネルギー高騰により3.10%と高水準にあるが, BOCが重視するコア物価（CPI-trim 1.80%, CPI-median 1.90%）は目標の2%を下回って落ち着いているため.
- [Factor 5] BoC policy decisions and minutes indicate a hold for the time being, citing uncertainty in economic recovery such as new U.S. tariffs, while remaining vigilant against upside energy price risks stemming from the Middle East situation.
- 【材料5】マックレム総裁がインフレ圧力が持続的になれば金利調整を辞さない姿勢を示し, 2年債利回りも3.21%と政策金利を大幅に上回って推移しており, 追加利上げ圧力が意識されているため.
- 【材料3・6】失業率が6.50%と過剰供給を示し, 実質賃金も-0.76%とマイナス圏で推移していることから, 早期の引き締めには慎重にならざるを得ないため.
Changes from previous update
- None
Conditions for view change
- Soaring energy prices spill over to other items, pushing CPI-trim and CPI-median clearly above 2% → Probability of a rate hike increases
- Canadian economic downside becomes pronounced due to new U.S. tariff measures and trade friction influences → Probability of a cut rises, or the hold period is prolonged
- Crude oil and fuel prices stabilize, slowing headline CPI toward the mid-2% range → Hike pressure recedes, and the probability of a hold rises